More than 20,000 people were killed or injured in violent incidents across Nigeria between 2020 and 2024, according to a new report highlighting the country’s worsening security crisis.
The report, published by Nextier, a non-governmental organisation, revealed that Nigeria recorded 5,291 violent incidents during the period, with 43 terrorist attacks and 1,306 bandit assaults in 2024 alone.
At a press briefing in Abuja on Wednesday, Nextier Managing Partner Dr Ndubuisi Nwokolo said the findings were based on data from the organisation’s Violent Conflicts Database.
Titled Mutations of Terror and Conflict, the report identified several external factors likely to shape Nigeria’s security landscape in 2025.
These include the war in Sudan, the expansion of terrorist groups across the Sahel, Nigeria’s strengthening ties with France, electoral outcomes in neighbouring countries, and Russia’s growing influence in Africa.
The report warned that illegal mining in the North West region was fueling armed banditry, making the area increasingly lawless and vulnerable to exploitation.
It also highlighted a surge in kidnappings, with 11,002 abductions recorded between June 2020 and December 2024, making the North West the most affected region.
Conflicts between farmers and herders have remained a major security challenge, particularly in the North Central and North West regions.
The report recorded 2,347 deaths from 359 violent incidents involving farmers and herders between 2020 and 2024.
In 2024 alone, 467 people died in 61 such clashes, with North Central accounting for nearly 90% of the casualties.
Other forms of violence identified in the report include cult clashes, communal conflicts, gunmen attacks, extrajudicial killings, and violent protests. Between 2020 and 2024, 2,988 cult-related clashes resulted in 695 deaths, with incidents peaking in 2022 before declining in 2023 and 2024.
The report urged the Nigerian government to strengthen both military and non-military approaches to tackling terrorism and banditry.
It called for better equipping of security forces and ensuring that increased defence spending translates into improved security outcomes.
It also warned that a newly emerging terrorist group, Lakurawa, could further escalate violence in 2025 and advised the government to enhance its regulatory and intelligence-gathering capabilities.
On the issue of secessionist tensions, the report suggested that the Nigerian government’s handling of the continued detention of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), could shape the trajectory of separatist agitation. It urged the government to consider his release to distinguish Biafra activists from armed criminals.
According to Nextier, the levels of kidnapping, farmer-herder clashes, and political conflicts in 2025 will depend on several factors, including how well the government implements livestock reforms, manages ethnic tensions, and oversees upcoming elections.
It pointed to ongoing friction between Nigeria’s Igbo and Yoruba ethnic groups, political rivalry in Rivers State, and the spread of hate speech as potential sources of instability.
