Nigeria’s merchandise trade soared to N149 trillion in 2025, up from N66.8 trillion in 2023, as the Federal Government signals a strategic pivot away from portfolio inflows towards converting over $50 billion in investment pledges into productive, long-term capital.
Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, disclosed this during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja, confirming that the nation has sustained a positive trade balance across recent periods. However, she cautioned that the headline value increase is partially driven by exchange-rate movements rather than a proportionate rise in physical trade volumes.
Trade surplus withstands currency pressures
Citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Oduwole reported merchandise trade values of N66.8tn (2023), N138tn (2024), and approximately N149tn (2025). In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, total trade stood at N36.21tn, with exports (N18.96tn) comfortably outpacing imports (N17.25tn).
“There is no economically meaningful single tonnage figure for total merchandise trade,” the Minister explained, noting that Nigeria trades everything from crude oil and gas to machinery and agricultural commodities. “We need to be statistically precise. The NBS reports aggregate trade principally by value and provides quantities at commodity level.”
Non-oil volume gains traction
Encouragingly, non-oil exports are showing tangible progress. According to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), volume increased by 10 per cent year-on-year, rising from 7.29 million metric tonnes in 2024 to 8.02 million metric tonnes in 2025.
“Our task now is to deepen value addition so that Nigeria exports more processed and manufactured products, rather than relying excessively on raw commodities,” Oduwole stated.
The FDI conundrum
While investment announcements have topped $50 billion, with over $6 billion in inflows recorded since 2024, the Minister drew a sharp distinction between headline pledges and actual capital deployment. She revealed that of the $10.37 billion in total capital importation recorded by the NBS in Q1 2026, a staggering $9.86 billion was portfolio investment—often characterised as “hot money”—leaving Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at a mere $135.08 million.
“The pipeline is strengthening, investor interest is rising, and our responsibility is to convert that pipeline into productive, long-term capital,” Oduwole asserted. “That is exactly why we are focused on investment facilitation and retention. The real work begins after an investor announces an intention to invest.”
The Ministry is now tracking investment actualisation through rigorous stages—including approval processes, financial closure, equipment importation, construction, and eventual production. Success, the Minister emphasised, will be measured not by announcements, but by capital deployment, industrial expansion, job creation, and technology transfer.
The administration remains committed to improving investor confidence and transforming opportunities into sustainable economic growth.
