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Investigating Nigeria’s Subsidy Removal and the Dangote Refinery Debacle

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By Sylvester Audu

In the midst of dwindling revenues and skyrocketing subsidy costs, Nigeria has taken a bold step by removing fuel subsidies, igniting controversy and unrest among its population.

Despite the opposition’s claims that subsidy removal will disproportionately affect the poor, the government’s redirection of funds towards crucial sectors such as health and education paints a promising picture for Nigeria’s future. The recent World Bank loan of almost a billion dollars for palliative measures may provide temporary relief, but it is not seen as a sustainable solution.

However, the fate of the much-anticipated Dangote Refinery, meant to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, remains uncertain as unforeseen technical difficulties delay its completion.

The Dangote Refinery, announced in 2013 with an initial $3.3bn loan deal with local and foreign banks to fund the construction, was expected to transform Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products and boost the country’s economy. With an initial completion date of 2018, the refinery was planned to produce enough refined petroleum to meet domestic needs and provide a surplus for export. However, the project has been plagued by continuous delays, attributed to factors such as lack of technical expertise, financial constraints, and poor project scoping.

Reports suggest that the Dangote Group is lobbying for an additional $3 billion cash injection, which could add to Nigeria’s debt burden and divert funds from more immediate solutions to the subsidy removal. Adding to the concerns surrounding the Dangote Refinery is the agreement between the Nigerian government and the Dangote Group. The Nigerian government in 2021 agreed to provide $2.7billion in cash-and-crude to the Dangote Group to fund the construction of the refinery in return for 20% equity. On December 1, 2021, the Federal Government through NNPC made a payment of $1.038billion in two tranches of $519.5million each to Lekki Refinery Funding Limited account with the beneficiary bank, representing the first cash portion of the deal, with the balance to be paid by the government upon completion of the project. This money was a loan from one of the international finance institutions to NNPC.

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With the company missing out on interest payments due January 2023 of 750million dollars which is still yet to be paid despite being structured by the banks almost three times, the project is faced with a big dilemma – and with it, Nigeria’s hopes for the refinery.

As it stands, there is evidence to suggest that the Company has exceeded its single obligor limit with local Nigerian banks and no international bank is willing to extend funds to it. In addition, the company will need at least 3 billion dollars in addition to its annual interest payments of about 700million dollars to complete the project by 2025. Whilst there are already talks for a backdoor arrangement being proposed with the CBN to enable a commercial bank circumvent its single obligor limit to the company in order for it to raise further cash for it to pay its interest obligation of 750million dollars which have fallen due, such a move has been viewed cautiously by supporters and critics of the project alike.

These reports also suggest that the company unsuccessfully approached the outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari administration to release the remainder cash sum of 1.7billion dollars which was to have been paid upon completion of the project. According to these reports, President Buhari backtracked after further due diligence was done on the project which revealed that the project would not be completed before 2025 unlike the December 2022 date the company had promised at the time of signing the agreement.

As a result, intense pressure is now being mounted on the incoming government of Bola Tinubu to pay the remainder sum of $1.7billion dollars upon taking office as well as approve a new cash injection of 3billion dollars and crude for additional 20% equity in the project so the company can raise sufficient cash in the short term to pay outstanding interest costs and complete the project. This is premised on the fact that the new government has declared it wants to plug revenue gaps by removing the subsidy but the company has now given them the impression that the project will be completed by mid-2024 – which is far from the case. The incoming government must therefore be wary of yet another such lofty promise by the project owners as sources close to the Chinese company brought in to salvage the refinery project say a 2024 date is not feasible.

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Should the incoming government go this route, it does nothing to solve the problems with the completion of the refinery, adds further unnecessary debt burden to the country and its citizens, and takes away money from critical and immediate solutions to the subsidy removal. Nigeria is already over-leveraged to the Dangote refinery project.

Many commentators believe that rather than relying on the uncertain completion of the Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian government should focus on the ongoing refurbishing exercise of its existing refineries. This strategy would not only provide a more reliable short-term palliative solution but also pave the way for a smoother transition from imported petroleum products. They should also encourage the modular refineries to ramp up production.

In addition, the Nigerian government should explore alternative strategies, such as investing in renewable energy sources, to reduce the nation’s reliance on imported petroleum products. This approach would provide long-term benefits to Nigeria’s economy and environment, while also fostering self-sufficiency in fuel production.

The removal of fuel subsidies offers Nigeria a unique opportunity to reassess its priorities and invest in a more sustainable future. By rejecting the new investment proposal for the Dangote refinery which has become an albatross whilst focusing on feasible alternative strategies, Nigeria can emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of global challenges. Can the incoming government afford to mortgage Nigeria’s scarce resources on a false hope? With billions of dollars and the country’s economy at stake, Nigeria cannot afford to pin all its hopes on the Dangote Refinery and even if the new government were to invest further in the project, there must be proper due diligence done before any investment is considered.

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Audu is a Writer and Social Justice Advocate writing from Abuja

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Opinion

Festus Adedayo’s Attack on Adewole Adebayo: When Bias Masquerades as Critique

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By Stephen Adewale

This rejoinder is a response to a column that graced the pages of the Nigerian Tribune on March 16, 2025, titled “Nasir El-Rufai and the Philosophy of Nothing.” The piece was penned by none other than Festus Adedayo, one of my cherished wordsmiths, a maestro of prose whose pen drips with both wit and wisdom.

Adedayo has long held a prime spot in my literary affections for reasons beyond mere admiration. First, we both hail from the illustrious Akure Oloyemekun, a shared heritage that makes his brilliance a source of personal pride. There is something uniquely gratifying about watching a kinsman wield the pen with such devastating elegance, weaving words as effortlessly as a bard conjuring magic. Second, in an era where original thinkers are as scarce as rain in the heart of harmattan, Adedayo stands tall as a relic of intellectual abundance. His columns have, for years, been my weekly ritual, a delectable dish of analysis served with just the right amount of audacity.

Regrettably, the unrelenting demands of academia had deprived me of Adedayo’s literary ambrosia for the past three weeks. Resolute in my quest for redemption, I consecrated my Sunday morning to devouring Adedayo’s recent columns, much like a parched wanderer stumbling upon an oasis of forbidden wisdom. And then, lo and behold, the last paragraph of the aforementioned column stopped me in my tracks. It was not just a paragraph; it was a gauntlet thrown, a provocation that demanded and commanded a response. And so, here I am, pen in hand, ready to engage.

In the preceding paragraphs, Adedayo took great pains to dissect El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP, wielding the philosophy of nothingness like a sculptor chiselling away at what he believed to be a futile political move. He argued, with the confidence of a man who has peered into the future, that El-Rufai’s new political adventure would amount to precisely nothing. Fair enough. He is entitled to his opinions, and I bear him no grudge for his gloomy prophecy. After all, time is the ultimate arbiter of political fortunes.

However, just when one thought the column was a masterclass in political critique, Adedayo took a reckless detour in the final paragraph, committing what can only be described as a literary felony. In one fell swoop, he attempted a hatchet job on the political integrity of SDP’s 2023 Presidential Candidate, Adewole Adebayo. Quoting him, he said ‘my excitement at the potentials of SDP as a viable opposition suffered a momentary halt almost immediately that same last week. Adewole Adebayo, 2023 presidential candidate…had come on an interview session on a national television. I had heard of his trumped up brilliance from journalists who earlier interviewed him.’

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To begin with, Adedayo’s statement exposes one of two possibilities; either he is woefully out of touch with the political landscape or he is deliberately peddling falsehoods in service of some unseen paymaster. Or how else can one explain his audacious claim that he had never encountered Adewole Adebayo’s interviews on national television before the week in question?

Adebayo has been a towering presence in the public space since January 2022, when he declared his presidential ambition. He has graced national television countless times, dissecting policies with the precision of a seasoned statesman, not merely critiquing but offering well-reasoned alternatives. His interviews have been clipped, shared, and dissected across social media, yet Festus Adedayo, an otherwise astute columnist, would have us believe that he only stumbled upon Adebayo’s rhetoric through second hand whispers from journalist friends. The claim is as implausible as it is suspicious, making one wonder if his sudden epiphany was less of an honest discovery and more of a scripted hit job.

Then he went on to claim that ‘at that interview session, gradually, Adebayo defrosted all those superlatives with which he was robed. By the time the interview session ended, in place of a huge turkey with huge feathers I expected to encounter, I was left with a species of hen Yoruba call “Adiye opipi”. This type of hen is known by a unique characteristic of featherless wings. Adebayo came across as this and much more. I saw a man who delights in a horse ride that takes place on the back of a cockroach. When you see such politicians, your mind races to a spent canister.’

There is a Yoruba adage that warns, “Ibi tó yẹ ká tíbá ọgbọ́n, a ò gbùdó bá àgò nbẹ,” meaning that where one expects wisdom, it would be a grave disappointment to find foolishness instead. Unfortunately, this perfectly captures the bewildering blunder committed by Festus Adedayo.

One would assume that a seasoned columnist of his caliber would back his scathing critique with substance. At least a direct quote or a reference to the supposedly underwhelming statement that shattered his lofty expectations of Adewole Adebayo would suffice. Yet, in a display of either intellectual laziness or calculated deception, Adedayo offers none.

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Since he conveniently avoids mentioning the specific interview that triggered his so-called disappointment, and given that Adebayo only appeared on Arise TV’s breakfast show during the week in question, it is clear that Adedayo was referring to that particular session. However, rather than provide any real context, he chose to shroud the event in ambiguity, hoping to mislead the unsuspecting public. Since he won’t do the honours, it is only right to offer a brief, unvarnished account of what truly transpired during the interview he so artfully distorted.

A few days before the said interview, Ayo of Arise TV blatantly misled viewers by falsely claiming that Adewole Adebayo had betrayed his supporters before the 2023 elections, endorsing President Tinubu and urging his followers to do the same. She went further, labelling him a politician devoid of principle.

When Adebayo finally appeared on Arise TV, he firmly set the record straight. He ran the race to the very end, never endorsed Tinubu, and never worked for the APC government, despite numerous inducements. He rightfully demanded an apology, but Ayo stood her ground. However, when the Arise TV crew presented what they called “evidence,” it backfired spectacularly, proving Adebayo right and exposing their deception. It was a textbook case of attempted character assassination gone embarrassingly wrong.

So, this was the interview that left Festus Adedayo “disappointed” in Adebayo, an interview where a man stood his ground against blatant falsehoods. When a self-proclaimed crusader of truth suddenly finds fault in someone defending himself against lies, perhaps it’s time to scrutinise the so-called champion of integrity. When a supposed high priest of truth suddenly takes issue with a man standing firm against lies, perhaps the high priest’s own altar is due for inspection.

Rather than call out Arise TV for their desperate attempt at character assassination, our esteemed “writer of truth” chose the path of deception by conveniently omitting the actual events. Instead of holding liars accountable, he doubled down, subtly trying to drag a principled man deeper into the mud. If this is what passes for truth-telling, then perhaps Festus Adedayo has been writing fiction all along.

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Festus Adedayo, in his infinite journalistic wisdom, managed to compress the entire essence of a man’s political ideology, years of intellectual engagement, and national contributions into the span of one interview. A man whose intellectual sagacity had only been whispered to him in passing by his journalist friends, yet he deemed himself qualified to pass a grand verdict!

His article, ostensibly about the SDP, quickly revealed itself as something else entirely; a well-tailored hit piece, stitched together with just enough cynicism to fulfill the desires of some lurking, unnamed paymaster. He spent paragraph after paragraph dismissing the SDP as an unworthy alternative, regardless of who joined, and then, as the grand finale, he wielded his last paragraph like a dagger to stab the reputation of the very man who has kept the party afloat since 2023. If there was ever a masterclass in agenda-driven writing disguised as political analysis, Adedayo just delivered it with the precision of a seasoned mercenary.

Criticism, when wielded with sincerity, serves as a scalpel, precise, constructive, and capable of refining its subject. But when used recklessly, it becomes a sledgehammer, destructive, indiscriminate, and serving no purpose beyond ruin. At a time when Nigeria teeters on the edge of existential crises, what we need are columnists who illuminate the path forward, not those who revel in the theatrics of demolition.

This is why it is profoundly disheartening to see Festus Adedayo, once a beacon in the murky waters of Nigerian columnists, take a detour into the alley of agenda-peddling. Nigeria is not merely in need of critics; it is in need of honest critics. It is in need of voices that challenge, correct, and inspire, not those who merely regurgitate the cynicism that has already poisoned our media space.

I have always admired Festus Adedayo, but his portrayal of Adewole Adebayo is a painful reminder that even the brightest stars can flicker. To watch someone we once held as a paragon of journalistic integrity stumble into the company of the ethically compromised is not just disappointing, it is a national tragedy. If even the ‘good ones’ can abandon sincerity for sensationalism, then truly, the night is darker than we feared.

*Stephen Adewale writes from the Department of History, Obafemi Awolowo University*

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Opinion

Barrister Kamoru Ogunlana : Promoting Professionalism in NASS

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BY ABUBAKAR YUSUF

Soon after his appointment in Acting capacity in November, 2024 as the new Clerk to the National Assembly CNA , Barrister Kamoru Ogunlana set the ball rolling to ensure the consolidation of professionalism and hard work in all facets of the National Assembly.

The newly appointed Clerk to the National Assembly CNA, on assumption of duty has hit the ground running by ensuring needed actions , collaborations and decisions that will not only improve workers performance on the job , but to develop new initiatives in line with the best practices is evolved.

This positive development was showcased recently during a courtesy call by members of the British Parliament member MP, our colonial masters, led by one of its members on a working visit .

The historic visit that boardered on manuals legislative drafting geared towards the improvement of lawmaking both at the British level and Nigeria came barely two months of assumption of duty as substantive Clerk to the National Assembly CNA, by Barrister Kamoru Ogunlana precisely in February.

He averred that manual legislative drafting and preparation promotes transparency, accountability and effective governance in the public domain, particularly in a sane democratic dispensation and legislative processes.

“The development of a legislative drafting manual is crucial in promoting transparency, accountability, and effective governance. It will provide a standardized framework for legislative drafting, ensuring that laws are clear, concise, and unambiguous,”

The new CNA who is grounded draftsman and a lawyer with the National Assembly over the decades promised to key into the idea of manual legislative drafting without further delay, in view of its importance to nations development, promote sane legislative policy and democracy, along with good governance.

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With a promise to key into the global standards and requirements, the new CNA emphasized shared commitment and determination of both countries to democratic principles and the unwavering actions been taken to sustain the tempo.

The log standing relationship both at the democratic evolution among many others will galvanise policy framework, introduction and practice.

“As members of the British Parliament, you share a legacy of fostering governance that reflects the will of the people and champions rights and freedoms,” he said.

“We take immense pride in the path we have forged and the collaborative spirit we have nurtured with you over the decades.”

“The CNA stressed that strengthening Nigeria’s legislative framework requires drawing from global best practices, including those of the UK Parliament. He underscored the importance of the partnership in advancing governance, democracy, and human rights.”

“The visit was seen as a step toward reinforcing legislative collaboration between the two countries and enhancing the effectiveness of Nigeria’s lawmaking processes.”

Fresh on the new role as administrative head of the National Assembly,NASS, the new CNA and the determination to take the legislative arm to greater heights was shown from his commitment to initiate many policies and programs including trainings and retraining to give a new lease to staffers of the National Assembly.

Written BY ABUBAKAR YUSUF on yus.abubakar3@gmail.com.

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Opinion

Borno Govt takes decisive action against child abuse

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Borno State Government has taken swift legal action against Mamman Sheriff and his wife, who were caught on video assaulting a young girl in Pompomari Bypass, Maiduguri.

The video, which went viral on social media after being posted by Ahmed Baba Dikwa, showed Mamman Sheriff brutally beating the girl while his wife encouraged him. Reports confirmed that the girl was attacked simply for entering their compound to pick a mango after returning from school.

The culprits

Upon receiving reports of the incident, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Borno State Command, immediately arrested Mamman Sheriff and his wife before the intervention of the ministries.

Following their arrest, the Borno State Government stepped in to ensure that justice was served by involving relevant ministries, including the Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development, the Ministry of Education, and the Ministry of Justice.

Despite being out of town, Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development, Hon. Zuwaira Gambo, quickly directed a delegation, led by social worker, Asabe Muhammad (Yar Bauchi), to follow up on the case. The delegation visited the NSCDC Borno Command, where they met with the 2IC Commandant, Obi Ndubisi, and the investigation officer, Peter, to ensure proper legal proceedings were initiated.

It was confirmed that the Ministry of Justice had taken over the case for prosecution, while the Ministry of Education also took necessary steps in response to the incident. The NSCDC assured the government that the perpetrators would face the full weight of the law and that justice would be served.

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Relief items distributed to the victim’s family

Meanwhile, the Borno State Government has also provided urgent support to the young girl and her family. She is currently receiving medical treatment at the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), with Dr. Lawan Bukar Alhaji covering her medical expenses.

Additionally, Hon. Gambo directed the distribution of relief items to the victim’s family, including dignity kits, 25kg bag of rice, two 25kg bags of garri and financial assistance

The victim’s family expressed their gratitude to the Borno State Government, the NSCDC, and all the ministries involved for their swift response and commitment to justice.

They commended Governor Babagana Zulum led administration for ensuring the protection of vulnerable citizens and taking firm legal action against child abuse.

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