Former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, issued a grave economic forecast for Nigeria on Thursday, cautioning that without immediate intervention, the nation could face financial ruin by 2026.
On his official X account, El-Rufai shared an article titled “Nigeria 2026: The Year All Hell Breaks Loose,” authored by Dr. Nnaoke Ufere. This analysis employs machine learning and economic simulations to predict a potential economic collapse in Nigeria by September 2026.
El-Rufai urged Nigerians to act promptly by disseminating the article among members of the national and state assemblies.
The report indicates a 75% likelihood of Nigeria descending into a severe debt crisis, which could result in defaulting on external debts, a naira crash, and a banking system failure.
It suggests that Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating might be downgraded to junk status, prompting creditors to demand immediate repayment and effectively cutting off access to external financing.
Additionally, the article warns that international financial institutions, including the World Bank and IMF, along with bilateral lenders, may not respond quickly enough to avert a collapse, leaving the nation in economic stagnation.
The forecast predicts significant disruptions to government revenues, particularly if creditors seize oil shipments—Nigeria’s main income source—leading to states being unable to meet payroll or deliver essential services.
In reaction to the funding crisis, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) might resort to excessive money printing, potentially triggering hyperinflation and widespread economic misery.
The projection also foresees shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, the deterioration of public infrastructure, and the breakdown of law enforcement, leading to heightened insecurity and unrest throughout the country.
“This is not speculation or alarmism,” the report asserts. “It is a clear and present danger based on rigorous analysis and robust scenario simulations.”
