Business
Africa’s Real GDP Expected to Increase by 4% in 2025, According to Afreximbank
Afreximbank’s Research Report indicates that Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is anticipated to grow by 4.0% in 2025, despite the prevailing global economic fragility.
The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report, produced by Afreximbank, forecasts that Africa’s real GDP will rise to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
As reported by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), the 2025 ATEO offers a comprehensive analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the near to medium term.
The report emphasizes key macroeconomic and trade developments that are pivotal to Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid increasing global and domestic uncertainties.
Notably, the report reveals that 41% of African economies are expected to grow by at least 5%, nearly double the global average of 21%, highlighting the continent’s expanding role as a catalyst for global growth.
The gradual recovery of Africa is expected to be bolstered by rising global demand for African exports, a trend of disinflation, and the execution of structural reforms aimed at diversifying economies across the continent.
However, the report also identifies potential downside risks to Africa’s economic outlook, including escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.
The report warns that an economic slowdown in the United States and China could affect international financial conditions and diminish demand for African resources. Additionally, internal conflicts and climate change pose threats to stability and growth.
On a more optimistic note, the report points to potential upside risks, such as a projected decline in global interest rates beginning in 2025, should geopolitical conditions remain stable, which may enhance access to financing.
Moreover, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a significant opportunity to strengthen economic integration and intra-African trade, thereby reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.
To mitigate potential downside risks, the report recommends several short-term strategies, including adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions, boosting domestic consumption, and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.
In the medium term, it suggests a shift towards economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training in key emerging sectors.
Furthermore, the report emphasizes the importance of improving economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to bolster intra-African trade dynamics.
The report outlines several challenges and solutions for Africa to achieve stability and sustainable development in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
The first challenge is Africa’s reliance on commodity exports, which leaves countries vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices. To mitigate this risk, a structural shift towards a more diversified and resilient economy is essential.
The second challenge pertains to debt sustainability, with many African nations allocating over 50% of their revenues to servicing debt due to substantial development financing needs. Ensuring debt sustainability will require more efficient public spending and prioritization of growth-oriented investment projects.
The third challenge involves human capital and skill development. The report advocates for increased government investment in healthcare and fostering collaboration between public and private sectors. Strengthening training in science and technology is vital for skill development and successful structural transformation.
The fourth challenge concerns the inadequate social outcomes of economic growth in Africa, marked by slow progress in poverty reduction. To enhance growth that reduces poverty, it is crucial to improve basic public infrastructure and services, along with reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation. Addressing inequalities should be central to sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.
The final challenge identified is the rising concern over environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. For sustainable economic development, promoting green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies while recognizing the continent’s development needs and challenges.
The 2025 ATEO provides an extensive analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the near to medium term. (NAN)
The Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, has emphasised the need for Nigeria to adopt a pragmatic and balanced approach to managing its fragile economy.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Business Morning, the financial expert cautioned against drastic expenditure cuts, highlighting the importance of security, investment, and inflation control.
His remarks follow a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which suggests Nigeria’s economic outlook is marked by significant uncertainty.
When asked about cutting government spending, Rewane drew a vivid analogy, stating that cutting expenditure is not the same as optimising it.
“The IMF is advising that we optimise expenditure, as there are numerous leakages at both state and federal levels, which act as a negative investment multiplier,” he explained. “But to ask us to cut our expenditure at a time when we need to invest more is like asking a man with an ulcer to go on a fasting mission.”
However, he warned that exemption from spending cuts does not mean free spending for the government at both state and federal levels. “We must optimise expenditure, not spend like drunken sailors,” he said.
Rewane acknowledged the necessity of President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and currency realignment, but stressed that these measures alone are inadequate for achieving economic stability.
“We must stop looking backwards,” he said. “What was appropriate in 2023 may not suffice for 2025.”
He also highlighted the challenges posed by insecurity in oil-producing regions, which continue to hinder Nigeria’s economic recovery. Without resolving these issues, oil production—a key revenue source—will remain underwhelming.
Inflation and Fiscal Challenges
Commenting on inflation, Rewane expressed cautious optimism, predicting a modest rise to 25–27%, contrary to the IMF’s projection of 30% in 2025 and 37% in 2026.
He pointed out that continued liquidity in the system may force the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain or increase interest rates to manage inflation expectations.
Rewane criticised the Debt Management Office (DMO) for reducing bond issuance from ₦1.8 trillion in the first quarter of the year to ₦1.2 trillion in the second quarter, calling it a step in the wrong direction.
“Increased bond issuance is key to mopping up liquidity and controlling inflation. This is one of the painful choices we make to control inflation,” he noted.
He also raised concerns about Nigeria’s undervalued crude oil exports, stating, “We sell for 70 cents, while our neighbours get $1.20. How long can this go on?”
While praising the Dangote Refinery for reducing local fuel prices, he warned that plans by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output could further depress oil prices.
On the global front, Rewane addressed US President Trump’s signal to reduce tariffs on China, noting that while it could ease pressure, uncertainty would persist.
He predicted greater stability between May and June, adding that any recession as projected by the IMF would likely be mild and not deep.
“I don’t believe the world can live with unexpected gyrations. Yes, a recession may come, but it will be mild, not deep,” he said.
Rewane concluded by stressing the need to fill Nigeria’s fiscal gap through borrowing, reducing leakages, and fiscal consolidation.
“These are serious times, and we must respond with serious adjustments,” he said.
Ride-hailing drivers in Lagos plan to halt services on May 1, 2025, accusing Uber, Bolt, Lagride, inDrive, and Rida of exploitation through low fares and high commissions, the Amalgamated Union of App-Based Transporters of Nigeria said on Tuesday.
The 24-hour shutdown, involving about 5,000 drivers, aims to disrupt Nigeria’s $273 million ride-hailing market. The drivers are demanding better wages and safer conditions, AUATON’s Public Relations Officer, Steven Iwindoye, noted in a statement shared with PUNCH Online.
Drivers face commission rates of 25-30 per cent and fares as low as N1,200 for 10km trips, compounded by rising fuel costs since the 2023 subsidy removal.
“Despite our efforts to engage in dialogue, these companies have consistently prioritised their profits over our well-being,” the union said. “They’ve ignored our pleas for fair compensation, safe working conditions, and respect for our rights as workers.”
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As part of the action, drivers will log off their apps and stay off the roads to demand better compensation, safety guarantees, and recognition of their rights.
The protest, timed for International Workers’ Day, follows growing scrutiny of the global gig economy, with similar actions already taken in the US and South Africa.
AUATON said it plans to establish a negotiation framework after the strike, working with labour groups to push for reforms.
“This is not just about drivers being off the road for one day,” said the union. “It’s about building a united front to demand dignity and fairness for the people who keep the digital transport economy running.”
The federal government says it is targeting an additional 4,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity to the national grid by the end of 2026 under a revised implementation plan for the presidential power initiative (PPI).
Bolaji Tunji, special adviser on strategic communications and media relations to Adebayo Adelabu, minister of power, announced the target in a statement on Sunday.
Nigeria’s current grid capacity is 4,919mw.
According to the statement, the administration of President Bola Tinubu has revitalised the PPI following the execution of an acceleration agreement with Siemens Energy to fast-track its implementation and improve power supply.
The new structure, Tunji said, allows Siemens to focus solely on modernising the transmission subsector using a turnkey model, while other credible engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms with proven capacity will be responsible for the distribution component.
“While acknowledging efforts of past administrations on the PPI, the Minister said some of the key milestones under the present administration apart from the execution of an Acceleration Agreement with Siemens Energy to fast-track the implementation of the PPI, include the approval of a new technical direction for the PPI, ensuring Siemens Energy focuses solely on upgrading and modernizing the transmission subsector through a Turnkey approach,” the statement reads.
“The president also approved that the distribution scope be delivered by other reputable Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) Companies with the requisite technical, financial, and financing capacity.
“The strategic decisions aim to increase grid capacity by an additional 4,000MW by the end of 2026, with an aspirational target of an additional 2,000MW, as directed by the economic management team in 2024.”
Tunji said that while the PPI was conceived in 2018 under a bilateral agreement between Nigeria and Germany, the project has witnessed significant progress since the Tinubu administration took office on May 29, 2023.
“There is no way the minister’s statement that no significant progress on the project was made until the present administration was inaugurated, can be faulted when the major milestones between 2023 till date are considered,” he said.
“This administration, under the leadership of President Tinubu, has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the PPI, recognising its critical importance to opening up the economy and galvanising national development.
“To ensure the expeditious delivery of improved power supply to industrial clusters, households, and businesses, President Tinubu mandated the signing of an Acceleration Agreement.
“This commitment has translated into tangible results. Under the present administration , leadership, strengthened programme governance has expedited contract and financing approvals, leading to faster project implementation.”
He noted that the PPI pilot phase under the current administration delivered 10 power transformers and 10 mobile substations, manufactured and delivered in October 2023.
The spokesperson said the several transmission projects executed by FGN Power Company have also added over 700MW in wheeling capacity for industries, universities, and homes.
Tunji said electricity generation in Nigeria peaked at 6,003MW on March 4, 2025, the highest ever, with a new record of 128,370.75MWh in daily energy delivery, and generation evacuation reached 5,801.44MW on the same day.
On grid infrastructure, he said over 70 transformers were added between 2024 and 2025 through TCN’s internally generated revenue (IGR) and support from the World Bank and African Development Bank, adding over 12,000 megavolt-amperes (MVA) to grid capacity.
“However, the minister is the first to acknowledge challenges in the sector. Such challenges include the N4 trillion in outstanding subsidies and unsustainable tariff regimes, rampant vandalism, electricity theft, and chronic bill non-payment, poor investment by some operators, especially in the distribution infrastructure and resistance to the sector commercialisation by the electricity consumers, which is impacting on the sector’s liquidity,” he added.
Tunji said that despite the challenges, the ministry has achieved significant progress in reforming the sector, expanding access, and upgrading infrastructure.
The spokesperson added that a solid foundation has been established for long-term transformation, driven by a commitment to inclusive, sustainable, and results-focused development of the power sector.