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Africa’s Real GDP Expected to Increase by 4% in 2025, According to Afreximbank

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Afreximbank’s Research Report indicates that Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is anticipated to grow by 4.0% in 2025, despite the prevailing global economic fragility.

The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report, produced by Afreximbank, forecasts that Africa’s real GDP will rise to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

As reported by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), the 2025 ATEO offers a comprehensive analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the near to medium term.

The report emphasizes key macroeconomic and trade developments that are pivotal to Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid increasing global and domestic uncertainties.

Notably, the report reveals that 41% of African economies are expected to grow by at least 5%, nearly double the global average of 21%, highlighting the continent’s expanding role as a catalyst for global growth.

The gradual recovery of Africa is expected to be bolstered by rising global demand for African exports, a trend of disinflation, and the execution of structural reforms aimed at diversifying economies across the continent.

However, the report also identifies potential downside risks to Africa’s economic outlook, including escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.

The report warns that an economic slowdown in the United States and China could affect international financial conditions and diminish demand for African resources. Additionally, internal conflicts and climate change pose threats to stability and growth.

On a more optimistic note, the report points to potential upside risks, such as a projected decline in global interest rates beginning in 2025, should geopolitical conditions remain stable, which may enhance access to financing.

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Moreover, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a significant opportunity to strengthen economic integration and intra-African trade, thereby reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.

To mitigate potential downside risks, the report recommends several short-term strategies, including adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions, boosting domestic consumption, and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.

In the medium term, it suggests a shift towards economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training in key emerging sectors.

Furthermore, the report emphasizes the importance of improving economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to bolster intra-African trade dynamics.

The report outlines several challenges and solutions for Africa to achieve stability and sustainable development in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

The first challenge is Africa’s reliance on commodity exports, which leaves countries vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices. To mitigate this risk, a structural shift towards a more diversified and resilient economy is essential.

The second challenge pertains to debt sustainability, with many African nations allocating over 50% of their revenues to servicing debt due to substantial development financing needs. Ensuring debt sustainability will require more efficient public spending and prioritization of growth-oriented investment projects.

The third challenge involves human capital and skill development. The report advocates for increased government investment in healthcare and fostering collaboration between public and private sectors. Strengthening training in science and technology is vital for skill development and successful structural transformation.

The fourth challenge concerns the inadequate social outcomes of economic growth in Africa, marked by slow progress in poverty reduction. To enhance growth that reduces poverty, it is crucial to improve basic public infrastructure and services, along with reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation. Addressing inequalities should be central to sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.

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The final challenge identified is the rising concern over environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. For sustainable economic development, promoting green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies while recognizing the continent’s development needs and challenges.

The 2025 ATEO provides an extensive analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the near to medium term. (NAN)

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Nigerians Decry NIRSAL Bank’s COVID-19 Grant Deductions

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April 16, 2025

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Nigerians are voicing outrage over unexpected deductions from their bank accounts by NIRSAL Microfinance Bank, which they claim were linked to COVID-19 grants disbursed during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

Beneficiaries, particularly in Kwara State, allege they were misled into providing their Bank Verification Numbers (BVN) and account details under the impression they were receiving grants, not loans.

The controversy has sparked accusations of mismanagement and calls for intervention from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as oversight bodies like the National Human Rights Commission and the Consumer Protection Council.

According to the Global Information Team, a monitoring group, many beneficiaries were unaware that the funds were loans requiring repayment.

Anabel Crown, the group’s head of investigation, described NIRSAL’s deduction practices as “unacceptable,” arguing that the bank should hold accountable politicians who facilitated the disbursements rather than penalizing recipients.

In Kwara State, some beneficiaries claim aides of former Senate President Bukola Saraki collected their BVN and account details, presenting the funds as grants to support indigenes during the pandemic.

At NIRSAL’s Area 10 Post Office branch in Abuja, frustrated beneficiaries gathered to protest, but their complaints have reportedly gone unaddressed.

“I was told it was a grant to help us survive COVID-19,” said Aisha Muhammed, a trader from Kwara. “Now they’re taking money from my account without warning. How is this fair?”

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which oversees NIRSAL, is said to have authorized the recovery of the funds without considering how they were disbursed.

He argue this approach disregards the circumstances under which beneficiaries received the money, many of whom were not informed of repayment obligations.

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The deductions have fueled speculation of political motives, with some suggesting the controversy could tarnish President Tinubu’s image ahead of the 2027 elections.

“This is a ploy to undermine the president’s reputation,” claimed Adebayo Olanrewaju, a civil society activist.

“The government must step in to protect citizens.”

The National Human Rights Commission and the Consumer Protection Council have been called upon to investigate NIRSAL’s practices, particularly the lack of prior notice before deductions.

“Withdrawing money without consent violates people’s rights,” said Funmi Adeyemi, a legal advocate.

“This must be addressed urgently.”

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Dangote Refinery Reduces Ex-Depot Petrol Price To N835/Litre

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7 hours ago

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April 16, 2025

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By Abubakar Yunusa

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has further reduced the ex-gantry price of premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, to N835 per litre.

According to sources at the refinery, the plant dropped the price of the petrol sold to oil marketers to N835 per litre, six days after the refinery reduced it to N865 per litre.

“The refinery reduced the price of the petrol to N835 per litre,” a source told TheCable.

The reduction in Dangote petrol price followed an announcement by the federal government on April 9, that the naira-for-crude oil deal will continue after the first phase ended on March 31.

“The stakeholders reaffirmed the government’s continued commitment to the full implementation of this strategic initiative, as directed by the Federal Executive Council (FEC),” the finance ministry said.

“Thus, the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention, but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining, bolster energy security, and reduce reliance on foreign exchange in the domestic petroleum market.”

On April 15, Farouk Ahmed, chief executive officer (CEO) of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), said the estimated pump price of petrol in Nigeria is less than that of neighbouring countries in West Africa.

Ahmed also said Nigeria’s petrol importation reduced by 29.9 million litres in eight months due to increased contributions from local refineries.

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Double-digit GDP growth necessary to achieve $1trn goal – UBA GMD

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2 days ago

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April 15, 2025

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Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Mr Oliver Alawuba, has said Nigeria requires a double-digit Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to achieve the projected one-trillion dollar economy target by 2030.

Alawuba made this remark on Monday in Abuja, at the ongoing 36th Edition of the Finance Correspondents and Business Editors Association of Nigeria Seminar, organised by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The theme of the seminar is, “Playing the Global Game: Banking Recapitalisation Towards a One- Trillion Dollar Economy”.

He emphasised the necessity of institutional frameworks and government support for banks to invest in critical infrastructure that would foster accelerated growth of the Nigerian economy.

“We need to grow at double digits to get to one-trillion dollar in 2030. We need 10 per cent growth, which is achievable,” he said.

He noted that only 12 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP is represented by the total assets of banks, while other economies have over 70 per cent to 100 per cent.

According to him, this indicates a significant gap where banks can intervene and help mobilise deposits, resources, and capital, ensuring that other sectors benefit from the banking system.

“The plan so far is highly beneficial for the economy. Strong banks require strong profits. Strong banks are crucial for building the strong economy we desire.

“It’s important that banks remain profitable so they can build a very robust reserve to support the economy and the banks themselves.

“The opportunities in Nigeria are immense. Therefore, sustainability will not be a problem.

“This is because banks will now be able to raise, even with the capitalisation we have undertaken, sufficient capital to truly elevate this economy to the next level,” the managing director added.

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Alawuba also said the 50 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) might be unsustainable for economic growth and urged its reduction, just as inflation rate was managed.

He highlighted the importance of security, financial inclusion and addressing infrastructure deficits in roads, ports and power.

He further stressed the need for tax incentives and a transition from a primary to a secondary economy to drive growth.

“We need an institutional framework and government support to invest in infrastructure and other areas to support the economy.

“A 50 per cent CRR is not sustainable if we are going to talk about the growth of the economy.

“I am happy that inflation is responding to the actions of the CBN.

“So, as the inflation rate comes down, we expect the CRR to come down,” he said. (NAN)

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