Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring.
President Donald Trump declined in an interview aired Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.
“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding, “It takes a little time.”
But Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.
“Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.
Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring.
Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.
Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers — already battered by years of inflation — brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.
And widespread government layoffs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.
Some signs are mixed.
A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump’s shifting tariff policy — effective dates have changed, as have the sectors being targeted — as businesses and investors try to puzzle out what will come next.
Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, was asked on ABC whether tariffs were primarily temporary or might become permanent.
Hassett said that depended on the behavior of the countries targeted. If they failed to respond positively, he said, the result could be a “new equilibrium” of continuing tariffs.
The administration has insisted that while the economy will pass through a possibly bumpy “transition,” things are headed in a positive direction.
In his State of the Union message on Tuesday, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take hold, while adding: “We’re okay with that. It won’t be much.”
And his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of a “detox period” as the economy cuts government spending.
Given the uncertainties, economists have been wary of making firm predictions.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 percent to 20 percent.
And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.
Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth.
The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs.
AFP
[3/10, 5:21 AM] Official _nacho: Butchers fear shutdown as cow price soars to N2m
The Lagos State Butchers’ Association has lamented the soaring cost of cows threatening the livelihoods of its members and called for the Federal Government’s intervention to save the sector from an imminent collapse.
The association’s Chairman, Alhaji Taiwo Rasak, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday in Lagos.
Rasak said the persistent surge in cow prices had pushed Lagos butchers to the brink with many struggling to maintain profit margins and stay in business.
“At the moment, the cheapest cow you can get is N700,000 against N200,000 to N350,000.
“Some cows are as high as N2m now, depending on the size.
“It is going to be more expensive now that we are in the Ramadan season,” Rasak said.
He said the development had led to reduced profit margins with many butchers battling to survive, while some could shut down their businesses if the situation persists.
“The impact of rising cow prices on Lagos butchers cannot be overstated. Many are struggling to survive and some may be forced to shut down their businesses if the situation doesn’t improve.
“The usually vibrant Oja Awolowo Market here in Mushin has fallen quiet with meat sellers facing a dire shortage that left their stalls nearly bare.
“While I acknowledge the government’s efforts to improve the lives of Lagos butchers, I urge them to swiftly address the mounting challenges in the sector that demand a more rapid and effective response,” he said.
Rasak described the government’s funding of meat production as the needed vital investment in the livestock sector.
He said the support would enable butchers and farmers to remain in business, even in the face of skyrocketing cow prices.
“The interventions can help bridge the gap between supply and demand, ultimately benefiting consumers.
“By supporting meat production, the government can contribute to food security, economic growth, and the well-being of its citizens.
“To effectively alleviate the challenges faced by meat sellers, the government must ensure that palliative loans are disbursed efficiently to reach the intended beneficiaries.
“Those who genuinely require financial support to sustain their businesses must be sought after.
“It is crucial that the government establishes a transparent and equitable system for distributing palliative loans, guaranteeing that these funds are directed towards meat sellers who are struggling to cope with the rising costs and need assistance to stay afloat,” he said.
