By Jeremiah Emmanuel, Abuja
The emergence of Mr Peter Gregory Obi as presidential candidate for Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election in Nigeria ushered in a new dimension in Nigeria political landscape.
Since Nigeria return to democracy in 1999, the contest for presidential elections in the country has been largely between two candidates and two political parties, despite having many registered political parties and candidates contesting.
But in 2023 Obi thwarted this pattern by ushering in a new dimension, where Nigerians instead of anticipating one out of the two candidates from either of the major political parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or All Progressive Congress (APC) – to emerge as winners, a third force was introduced and he pulled in significant votes that threatened the victory of the two political parties.
Nigerians at the time were not sure of the direction the election results will go, as the contest was thoroughly fought, not until the last result was announced. The uncertainty became stronger after Obi was declared winner of Lagos State results, where it was thought to be President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s stronghold, having governed the state as governor for 8 years uninterrupted.
Obi’s exploits at the poll was largely due to the fact that Nigerians were tired of the traditional pattern of two political parties recycling the same people. The young educated population in the country defying the ethnic, religious and regional lines galvanised this support spread nationally, thereby making his rise and visibility a reality.
LP, the political party that Obi contested the 2023 presidential election on was obscure to many Nigerians at the time he joined the party; but his entrants popularised the party and gave it a national appeal and visibility.
This, has also defy the initial believe that for a candidate to be successful at the election, he must join either of the two political parties and must have a ‘structure’ – people he paid to monitor and protect his votes while the elections lasted – but Obi who champion a mantra ‘We no dey give shishi’ meaning ‘we don’t bribe’ didn’t have the ‘structure’, and with this his unique mantra, he was able to convince and made the young Nigerians believe in his vision as the leader Nigerians have been waiting for.
But lately, Obi’s decisions seems to be a very big political miscalculation since his entrance in politics at the national stage in 2018/2019. Most especially when he decided to dumped the LP for the Africa Democratic Congress (ADC), which to many Nigerians, it’s the conglomeration of politicians whose personal interests and ego have been bruised; and whose main interest is to seize power at all cost, not minding if Nigeria gets hurt.
While many Nigerians considered some of these politicians in ADC as people with questionable characters, Obi’s romance with them has generated a lot of concern among his teaming supporters, which has made many Nigerians who initially believe in his cause to have a second thought about his true intension about governance in Nigeria.
Obi Jumping Ship in 2022 and Overwhelming Support
Cross-carpeting from one political party to the other in Nigeria has been viewed by many Nigerians as act of desperation, irresponsible and do-or-die by politicians without character, and Nigerians frowned at it.
When Obi cross-carpeted from PDP to LP in 2022, Nigerians supported the move, this is because they believe that it was born out of necessity, as PDP at the time was dominated by politicians that can best be described as sharks and hawks, politicians whose main intensions was to retain power to certain region of the country at the detriment of peace and stability of the country; and these politicians were out to frustrate Obi’s success at the PDP’s primary election.
Nigerians knowing that if Obi had remained in the PDP, it would have denied them the opportunity to have him participates at the poll as presidential candidate, and would have denied them chance to support him as their choice candidate, they supported the move.
Lately Obi’s political trajectory has left many of his supporters bewildered as to why his sudden change in behaviour and alliance with people whose characters are in contrast with what Nigerians have known him for. This has got some Nigerians wondering if the demised of former Anambra State Governor, late Chief Chukwuemeka Ezeifi is impacting negatively on Obi’s political decisions as he may have no good elderly adviser anymore.
Going through Obi’s records as governor of Anambra State, which stood him out among other candidates that participate both at the PDP presidential election primary and the presidential election in Nigeria, as he has little or no corruption cases or scandals linked to his name, which is alien to the average Nigeria politicians. Obi enjoyed the mass acceptance and support because of this.
There was a post by a Nigerian from the north who said that the “North should forgive Obi and support him” promising to canvass for support for Obi personally from the north; and this is one of the issues people should be bothered about. That feeling of entitlement by some sections of Nigerians wil What offence has Obi committed against the north that he needs to be forgiven?
Obi’s Defections in 2026 and Underwhelming Impact
It’s pertinent to note that Obi’s entrant in the presidential race that broke the traditional “Two major contenders for the seat of the Nigeria president” is gradually losing its grip on Nigerians as some of his diehard supporters are gradually changing their support base; this is not unconnected to the fact that they felt uncomfortable with his new political direction. They felt that Obi has betrayed the trust they had on him and this is gradually corroding on his image.
Some of these politicians are people Nigerians believe has questionable characters, they have inflicted pains and injuries on Nigerians; and Obi should not be seeing mingling with them. They have baggages of corruption cases hanging on their names that they rely on whip sentiment as strategy to clear their names.
Obi Clean Sheet
While the 2023 presidential election can be adjudge as one of the most contested elections since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Obi’s clean records made him boasted “If anyone can show one corruption charges against my running mate – Datti Baba-Ahmed – I will abort my presidential ambition”. Obi said this without fear, this was because he was sure of people he had in his circle and boasted without fear.
Today, can Obi said the same thing about his new found political allies? Having encompass himself with the likes of the former attorney general of the federation, Abubakar Malami, whose cases are before the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), or the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir Ahmed el-Rufai, whose cases also are before the EFCC, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related Crimes Commission (ICPC) and the Department for State Services (DSS)?
His decision to dump LP for ADC to pursue his dream to govern Nigeria portrayed him as someone desperately desirous to grab power at all costs, thereby not minding dining with the devil to helps him achieve it. He is not thinking of the possible danger his actions will exposed Nigeria and Nigerians to.
Obi’s Decisions and Tinubu 2027 Boost
It is worthy to note that many Nigerians who opposed to the candidature of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 are gradually realigning their political standing with him; this is kudos to Obi’s poor decisions and the president’s programmes and policies.
While some public may frowned at the president’s decision to remove fuel subsidy, many supporters of Obi who followed his campaign promises are pleased with Tinubu on this. Also, the political willingness of his government support the establishment and operation of the Dangote petroleum refinery, allowing the market forces determine cost of goods and services, and many other programmes with future benefits have endeared him in Nigerians’ heart.
Similarly, the president’s decision not to interfere with senate screening of ministerial nominees where the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir Ahmed el-Rufai was not cleared for ministerial position was commendable, el-Rufai as governor of Kaduna has antagonised many Nigerians that oppose to his political views. He has inflicted untold pain on the people of Kaduna State, where he imprisoned some unjustly – like the spokesperson for Southern Kaduna People Union (SOKAPU) Luka Biniyat, a journalist and activist, Steven Kefas, leader of Shia movement in Nigeria, Sheikh Ibraheem Yaqoub El-Zakzaky and a host of others.
In some instances, people that have qualms with el-Rufai were mysteriously murdered and there are no reports about investigation, probe, arrest or prosecution of their murderers, like the Agom Adara III, Dr. Maiwada Raphael Galadima, the activist and critics of the governor, Mr Abubakar Idris—popularly known as Dadipros’s case and host of others.
Therefore, one would have expected that since Obi’s desire is to see a prosperous Nigeria, he would have sheath his political sword this time and either go limbo, instead of pitching tents with his new found allies, or better still pitch tent with the current administration, whom to many believe their programmes and policies are akin to what Obi’s campaign promises were. In so doing, he would bring about more developments for the Nigeria population, hence the government programmes seem to align with the promises he made while contesting in 2023.
Previous Elections from 1999 Till Date
Records of previous presidential elections since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999 has shown that despite having many political parties participating in the elections, the contest were majorly between two political parties and candidates.
In 1999, three political parties fielded candidates for the presidential elections, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All People’s Party (APP), where AD and APP formed an alliance and fielded a single candidate, despite the alliance, General Olusegun Obasanjo PDP defeated the AD-APP Olu Falae with a wide margin of 25%, as the PDP won by 18,738,154 votes, which represents 62.78%, while the AD-APP won by 11,110,287 votes, which represents 37.22%.
In 2003, there were more political parties that contested, yet the contest was between two major candidates and party. The PDP who had the incumbent president, Olusegun Obasanjo polled 24,456,140 votes, which represents 61.94% to defeat its closest challenger, Major General Muhammadu Buhari of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) who polled 12,710,022 votes, which represents 32.19%, while Odumegwu Ojuku of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) came a distant third with 1,297,445 votes, which represents 3.29%.
In 2007 Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of PDP polled 24,638,063 votes, which represents 69.60%, defeating his closest challenger, Muhammadu Buhari of ANPP, who polled 6,605,299 votes, which represents 18.66%, while the third challenger, who at the time was Nigeria vice president, Atiku Abubakar of Action Congress (AC) polled 2,637,848 votes, which represents 7.45%.
In 2011 Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP polled 22,495,187 votes, which represents 58.87% to defeat his closest challenger, Muhammadu Buhari of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) who polled 12,214,853 votes, which represents 31.97%; the far third challenger, Nuhu Ribadu of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) polled 2,079,151 votes, which represents 5.44%.
In 2015 Goodluck Jonathan PDP, ruling party polled 12,853,162, which represents 44.96%; he lost to his main challenger, Muhammadu Buhari of All Progressive Congress (APC), who polled 15,424,921 votes, which represents 53.95%; the far third challenger, Adedayo Adeyaba of AD polled 40,696 votes, which represents 0.14%.
This trend changed in 2023, when Obi came into the race, he emerged as a strong third force in the presidential election race; Obi defied the Nigeria traditional two parties’ dominance that has been the pattern, and offered a stronger third place, where he polled a whopping 6,101,533, which represents 25.40, the first runner up, who was PDP Atiku Abubakar polled 6,984,520 votes, which represents 29.07%; the winner at the election was Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC who polled 8,794,726 votes, which represents 36.61%.
This was the first time a winner of the presidential election in Nigeria has won with less than a 50% votes, and the margin between the second runner up and the winner is 11.20%.
