By Abubakar Yunusa
A former Israeli intelligence officer and regional analyst has warned that Iran’s military nuclear programme has suffered a significant setback, but the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty.
Avi Melamed, who previously served as a senior adviser on Arab affairs to Jerusalem mayors, believes Iran now stands at a critical juncture—either escalate its military confrontation or return to the negotiating table.
“At this stage, it can be assessed that Iran’s military nuclear program has been significantly set back—though not entirely dismantled,” Melamed said in a recent analysis shared with Elanza News .
According to Melamed, the Iranian regime faces a strategic dilemma between two options it sees as “the lesser of two evils.”
“The military path would dramatically escalate the threat to the regime’s survival,” he noted.
“A negotiated path—though requiring the regime to swallow a bitter pill—could allow it to preserve a core power base and maintain its grip on power.”
The former intelligence official also drew attention to China’s growing influence in the region, suggesting that Beijing may play a decisive role in steering Tehran’s next move.
“It is likely that Beijing will exert quiet but deliberate pressure on Iran to de-escalate and resume negotiations,” he said.
Melamed warned that regardless of the path chosen, Iran is expected to undergo a period of internal upheaval.
“Intense internal turbulence within the regime is expected, with consequences that remain unclear at this time.”
As international observers watch closely, much now depends on Tehran’s next steps—and the pressures it faces from global powers, especially China.
