Nigeria has been ranked among the five Sub-Saharan African countries with the highest potential to boost productivity through artificial intelligence, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund.
The report, titled “Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa,” identified Nigeria alongside South Africa, Mauritius, Botswana and Namibia as the economies expected to record the strongest AI-driven productivity gains under the IMF’s baseline projections.
The Fund attributed Nigeria’s position to its labour market structure, noting that a significant proportion of the workforce is employed in finance, information and communication technology, and professional services, where artificial intelligence is expected to deliver greater productivity gains than in predominantly manual occupations.
The IMF, however, warned that despite the country’s strong potential, weak infrastructure, unreliable electricity, limited digital connectivity and skills shortages continue to threaten AI adoption across Sub-Saharan Africa.
It said, “Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a general-purpose technology with the potential to reshape productivity, labour markets, and growth trajectories worldwide.
“For Sub-Saharan Africa, the central concern is not the risk of technological disruption, but whether countries will be able to adopt, adapt, and scale AI quickly enough to capture its benefits and avoid falling further behind.”
According to the report, countries that strengthen digital infrastructure, improve electricity supply, invest in technical skills and establish sound governance frameworks stand to unlock significant economic benefits from AI.
The IMF projected that, depending on policy choices and the pace of AI adoption, productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa could rise by between 0.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent over the next decade, with the potential to add almost half a percentage point to annual GDP growth.
Explaining Nigeria’s ranking, the Fund said the country’s employment structure more closely resembles that of emerging market economies than many of its regional peers, placing it in a stronger position to benefit from AI-driven innovation.
It cautioned, however, that the projections reflect current conditions rather than the technology’s full potential.
“These estimates should be interpreted as a current-conditions diagnostic rather than a forecast of AI’s technological potential.
“They reflect today’s low adoption, infrastructure gaps, and sectoral structure; they do not capture the full range of gains that could arise from faster diffusion, structural transformation, public sector applications, or AI-enabled innovation,” the report stated.
The IMF also warned that failure to address existing structural challenges could widen the development gap between Africa and advanced economies.
“The region’s AI trajectory is not predetermined: Policy choices will shape whether AI supports convergence or deepens divergence,” it said.
Despite the challenges, the Fund noted encouraging progress across the region, with AI increasingly being deployed in agriculture, financial technology, healthcare, education and public service delivery.
It added, “AI presents a narrow but meaningful window of opportunity for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to accelerate growth and improve living standards. The region does not need to be at the technological frontier to benefit, but it must be able to adopt, adapt, and scale AI rapidly and inclusively.”
