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Brace Up, The Mother Of All Interest Rate Hikes Is Coming

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Nigerian companies are on track to incur higher finance cost in the second half of the year as rising inflation rate pile pressure on the CBN to raise interest rates.

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveal Nigeria’s inflation rate rose by 20.52% in the month of August 2022, the highest pace since September 2005.

This is likely to trigger another rate rise from Nigeria’s central bank which will make it the third time this year. The benchmark interest rate was first raised in May to 13% from 11.5% and then again to 14% in July after the National Bureau of Statistics reported a five-year high inflation of 18.60% in June and moved up to 19.64%, the highest since 2005.

Exchange rate between naira and dollar depreciates to N708/$1 at the black market on 19th September 2022

When interest rates are raised by apex banks, it immediately elevates short-term borrowing costs for financial institutions with ripple effects on virtually all other borrowing costs for companies and consumers. For banks, it increases interest income, while for corporates it results in higher interest expenses.

According to data from 30 of the largest companies on the Nigerian Exchange, net finance cost has risen from N148 billion in the first half of 2021 to N203 billion in the same period this year. Total debts have risen to N2.8 trillion in the first half of 2022 compared to about N2 trillion in the same period last year. We expect finance costs to rise further in the second half of the year due to a combination of more loans and higher interest charges.

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With the CBN likely to raise rates when the next monetary policy committee meeting takes place later this month, we believe the cost of borrowing across the country will rise in tandem. The apex bank gave the signal to this when it increased interest rates in regulatory forbearance for its intervention loans from 5% to 9% last month.

Nigeria’s central bank also seems to have chosen price stability over growth, thus the urgent need to raise rates and this can be seen in the personal statements of members of the MPC at the last meeting in August. Here is what the CBN said last August:

“Aside from narrowing the negative real interest rate gap, Members were also of the view that tightening would signal a strong determination of the Bank to aggressively address its price stability mandate and portray the MPC’s sensitivity to the impact of inflation on vulnerable households and the need to improve their disposable income”

CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele actually went for a more aggressive rate hike, proposing 14.5%. This is what he said, “I am convinced that policy tightening, to a significant degree is crucial at this time. I believe that given the over 84 and 200 basis points increases in headline and food inflation, respectively, aggressive tightening is necessary to dampen pervasive inflation, contain expectations, and provide a forward guidance.”

The impact will be huge across industries, especially for companies that are highly indebted or those that are planning to raise money from the debt markets.

The latest data from the apex bank reveal Nigeria’s prime and maximum lending rate was 12.1% and 27.6% respectively as of July this year. These rates are likely going to rise as we approach the end of the year and companies who have floating exchange rates will feel the pinch. We also envisage some of the country’s largest debtors who tapped the bond market at below MPR rates will continue to service the loans at the same rate however, rates for newer borrowings will likely increase.

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in addition to a potential for rising rates on local denominated loans, we also envisage an uptick in lending rates for foreign borrowings. Sentiments across the world suggest monetary authorities globally are primed to raise their rates when they meet later this month. These sentiments have sent global stock markets tumbling.

A rise in rates for dollar borrowing will also affect fresh debt issuance for local companies. Existing foreign currency loans are also likely to take a hit.

Investors in some of the highly leveraged companies on the Nigerian Exchange will need to brace up for a possibility of lower dividend next year. The stock market is also likely to take a hit as investors cycle fund out of potentially low yielding investments into interest bearing fixed income securities.

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World Bank to approve $2.2bn loan for Nigeria in 2025

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The federal government is expected to receive new loans from the World Bank, totalling $2.2 billion in 2025.

According to the Washington-based financial institution’s project list, the $2.2 billion will cut across six different projects.

World Bank earmarked $500 million for the ‘Community Action (for) Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme,’ which will be approved by March 17.

On March 31, the World Bank plans to approve $552 million for the ‘HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All’ and $800 million for ‘Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0’.

Also, the World Bank said it will approve $300 million for the ‘Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project’ on July 15 and another $300 million for the ‘Health Security Program’ on August 19.

TheCable also observed another project, ‘Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth (BRIDGE)’ will receive $500 million after approval on September 15.

World Bank said the BRIDGE initiative and the Health Security Programme are in the concept review stage, implying that they are still in the early stages of assessment and planning.

Also, the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 and the HOPE for Quality Basic Education projects have progressed to the negotiation stage.

The multilateral lender gave Nigeria $1.5 billion in 2024 for a number of significant development initiatives meant to strengthen the country’s ability to mobilise resources and maintain economic stability.

On November 19, 2024, TheCable reported that Nigeria’s loan exposure from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) rose to $17.1 billion as of September 30, 2024.

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According to the IDA’s financial statement for September 2024, Nigeria maintained the third spot in the latest top 10 borrowers’ list.

As of December 31, 2024, Nigeria’s exposure dropped to $16.8 billion, but it still retained its position as the third-largest debtor to the World Bank’s IDA.

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Nigeria’s GDP improves by 3.84% in Q4 2024 – NBS

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate in real terms grew by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 on a year-on-year basis.

The Statistician-General(S-G) of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran disclosed this in a statement on Nigeria’s GDP Report for Q4 2024 released in Abuja on Tuesday.

Adeniran said the growth rate was 0.38 per cent points higher than the 3.46 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“Similarly, it was higher by 0.38 per cent basic points relative to a similar growth rate of 3.46 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2024.

“This reflected a higher economic improvement when compared to Q3 2024.”

The S-G said the performance of the GDP in Q4 2024 was still driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.37 per cent and contributed 57.38 per cent to the aggregate GDP.

Adeniran said on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP grew by 10.99 per cent in Q4 2024, which indicated a higher production level than in Q3 2024.

He said the estimated economic activity in real terms for Q4 2024 stood at N22,610,393.45 million.

Adeniran said this was higher than the rates recorded in Q3 2024 and Q4 2023 which stood at N20,115,766.93 million and N21,773,263.25 million, respectively.

He said this also highlighted the improvement in the economy in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024 and Q4 2023.

The S-G said overall, the year 2024 ended with an overall annual GDP growth rate of 3.40 per cent relative to 2.47 per cent recorded in 2023.

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“Thus, there was a decline in the performance of the Agriculture and Industry sector in 2024 relative to 2023, while the performance of the Services sector improved in 2024,” he said.

Adeniran said in nominal terms, which refers to the current price, aggregate GDP stood at N78,374,120.95 million in Q4 2024, which indicated a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 18.91 per cent.

He said this was higher than the N65,908,258.59 million recorded in Q4 2023 and the N71,131,091.07 million in Q3 2024.

Adeniran said the major contributing economic activities in real terms in Q4 2024 were Crop Production at 23.42 per cent, Trade at 15.11 per cent, and Telecommunication at 14.40 per cent.

Real Estate at 5.88 per cent, Financial Institutions at 5.76 per cent, and Crude Petroleum at 4.60 per cent.

On a broad classification of the economic activities into Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors based on growth, he said the Agricultural Sector grew by 1.76 per cent and the Industry grew by 2.00 per cent.

The S-G said this showed a decline compared to the rate recorded in Q4 2023 at 2.10 per cent for the Agricultural sector and 3.86 per cent for the industry sector.

On the other hand, he said the Services sector recorded a 5.37 per cent increase in growth rate compared to the 3.98 per cent recorded in Q4 2023.

Giving a breakdown of sectoral contributions to the GDP in Q4 2024, Adeniran said Agriculture contributed 25.59 per cent, Industry 17.03 per cent, and Services 57.38 per cent.

He said the Agriculture and Industry sector’s contribution was less than their contributions in Q4 of 2023 by 0.53 per cent and 0.31 basis points.

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Adeniran said the Services sector had the highest contribution to the GDP in Q4 2024, surpassing their contribution in Q4 2023 by 0.83 per cent basis points.

He said the annual contributions of the economic sector showed that Agriculture contributed 24.64 per cent in 2024, which was lower compared to its contributions of 25.18 per cent recorded in 2023.

Similarly, the Industry sector’s annual contribution was 18.47 per cent in Q4 2024, which was also lower than the 18.65 per cent recorded in 2023.

However, he said the services sector contributions for 2024 were 56.89 per cent which exceeded the 56.18 per cent recorded in 2023.

The S-G said the Oil sector witnessed a growth rate of 1.48 per cent in Q4 2024.

He said this indicated a decline compared to the 12.11 per cent recorded in Q4 2023, and the 5.17 per cent in Q3 2024.

Adeniran said the Oil sector accounted for 4.60 per cent of the GDP in Q4 2024.

He said the annual oil GDP for 2024 grew by 5.54 per cent, which was 7.75 per cent higher than the annual GDP recorded for 2023 at -2.22 per cent.

Adeniran said the annual contribution of oil stood at 5.51 per cent in 2024 which was higher than its contribution in Q4 2023 at 5.40 per cent.

He said Q4 2024 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), which was lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in Q4 2023 by 0.03 mbpd.

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“On the contrary, the production volume for Q4 2024 was higher than Q3 2024 which recorded 1.47 mbpd by 0.06 mbpd.”

He said the non-oil sector contributed 95.40 per cent to the GDP in Q4 2024 in real terms.

“This shows an increase on a year-on-year basis when compared to Q4 2023 which recorded a contribution of 95.30 per cent.

“Similarly, the non-oil sector’s contribution in Q4 2024 exceeds the 94.43 per cent recorded in Q3 2024.”

Adeniran said the economic performance of the non-oil sector in Q4 2024 was attributed to the growth recorded in some economic activities, including Rail Transport & Pipelines, Metal Ores, Financial Institutions, Road Transport, Quarrying & Other Minerals, and Insurance.

He said on an annual basis, the non-oil grew by 3.27 per cent in 2024, which was higher than the 3.04 per cent recorded in 2023.

“While in terms of aggregate contributions, the non-oil sector contributed 94.49 per cent in 2024, which was lower than the 94.60 per cent recorded in 2023,” he said. (NAN)

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Equity Market drops N231bn amid Sell-offs

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The equity market began the week in the red on Monday, losing N231 billion due to profit-taking by investors.

Sell-offs in Tier-one banking stocks like Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, FBN Holdings, and Fidelity Bank, as well as Oando Plc and Berger Paints, caused the decline.

The Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) market capitalisation fell by N231 billion, or 0.34 per cent, from N67.614 trillion at the open to N67.383 trillion at the close.

The All-Share Index dropped 0.34 per cent, or 370.43 points, ending at 108,126.97, down from 108,497.40 on Friday.

In spite of the decline, the Year-To-Date (YTD) return increased by 5.05 per cent.

Market breadth was negative, with 37 losers and 17 gainers.

Northern Nigeria Flour Mills (NNFM) led the losers, falling 9.99 per cent to close at N72.55 per share. Ikeja Hotel led gainers, rising 10 per cent to N12.10.

In spite of the downturn, trading activity remained strong, with a 10.16 per cent increase in value.

A total of 357.76 million shares worth N9.21 billion were traded across 15,914 transactions.

Jaiz Bank led in volume with 48.19 million shares, while Zenith Bank recorded the highest trade value, at N1.37 billion. (NAN)

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