A new security assessment has flagged Ihiala and Aguata local government areas as potential flashpoints in the upcoming Anambra governorship election.
The report, conducted by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), warned that political rivalry, youth mobilisation, and deep-rooted disputes over candidate selection could trigger violence in both LGAs.
Released on Friday in Abuja, the study — The Early Warning: Assessing Pre-Election Security Risk Ahead of the 2025 Anambra Off-Cycle Governorship Election — surveyed all 21 LGAs in the state.
It named Ihiala and Aguata as “severe risk zones”, while 13 other LGAs, including Awka South, Ogbaru, Onitsha North, Anaocha, Idemili North, Idemili South, and Nnewi North, were ranked as high risk.
Onitsha South, Njikoka, Nnewi South, and Anambra West were placed in the moderate-risk category.
KDI recalled that insecurity in Ihiala was so severe during the 2021 election that INEC failed to conduct voting on election day, resorting to a supplementary poll.
In Aguata, the home LGA of Governor Charles Soludo, the report highlighted entrenched vote-buying, fierce political rivalries, and a lack of trust in security agencies as key red flags.
Beyond security concerns, the report painted a worrying picture of declining confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
More than 71 percent of respondents expressed little or no trust in the commission’s ability to deliver a credible poll.
Turnout has already collapsed in Anambra, dropping to just 10.3 percent in the 2021 governorship election.
KDI called on INEC to strengthen logistics, deploy well-tested BVAS machines, and publish LGA-level results promptly to boost transparency.
It also urged security agencies to step up community engagement and deploy trained personnel in line with local risk ratings.
“The credibility of the November poll depends on urgent action to address both security threats and the trust deficit,” said KDI Executive Director Bukola Idowu.
